Moneyball: come le statistiche hanno salvato una squadra di baseball

Davide Bennato226 Comments

Quanti di voi conoscono il termine sabermetrics?
Io l’ho scoperto qualche giorno fa leggendo le mie fonti blog su datamining e dintorni.

La sabermetrics sono le statistiche sul baseball messe a punto dalla Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) da cui il nome.
La società è attiva dalla metà degli ‘anni 70 e lo scopo è quello di elaborare delle misure che aiutino a valutare il valore dei giocatori e il loro contributo alle vittorie della squadra.

Il termine è piuttosto diffuso negli Stati Uniti (le sabermetriche sono stampigliate sul retro delle figurine del baseball) e fra chi si occupa di fantasy sport (la versione USA del Fantacalcio applicati a varie attività sportive) oppure chi ha seguito la serie TV Numbers.

Il termine fra qualche mese sarà piuttosto famoso, o comunque sarà più celebre l’idea che per valutare l’efficienza di una squadra, è necessario avere dati oggettivi o comunque non opinabili come statistiche e analisi quantitative.

Perché?
Perché i cinema avranno presto in programmazione il film Moneyball, con Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill e Philip Seymour Hoffmann.

La storia tratta dal libro Moneyball. The Art of Winning an Unfair Game di Michael Lewis, (qui la voce Wikipedia) racconta la stagione 2002 degli Oakland Athletics, durante la quale per reagire alla partenza di alcune stelle del team assieme a enormi problemi finanziari della squadra, Billy Beane (nel film Brad Pitt) decide di affidarsi alla sabermetrics per elaborare strategie e tattiche per rendere competitivo il team.

Questa la trama in estrema sintesi, così non ci roviniamo il piacere di vedere il film con troppi spoiler. Ovviamente mi aspetto una contrapposizione tra la vecchia scuola – lo sport è cuore e passione – e la nuova scuola – lo sport è datamining e strategia.

Quello che ho scoperto – indagando sul libro – è che il libro stesso è una specie di cult nel mondo del baseball americano.
Pubblicato nel 2003,  oltre ad essere una rapida storia della sabermetrics, sostiene l’idea che una analisi statistica rigorosa possa dare delle importanti indicazioni ai team di baseball.
Il termine è entrato non solo nel gergo del baseball professionale, ma anche nell’immaginario collettivo, come mostra questo fotogramma preso da una puntata dei Simpson.

 

 

 

 

In attesa di vedere il film al cinema – e le discussioni sui settimanali sull’argomento (spero) – una domanda mi ronza in testa, per quanto non sia un appassionato di calcio (e di sport in genere).

Perchè non esiste una FIFAmetrics? O – magari – FIGCmetrics?
Chi legge tecnoetica sa che ho raccontato di interessanti applicazioni del datamining al gioco del calcio, soprattutto nel caso dei mondiali.

Sarebbe interessante valutare in modo statistico e quantitativo le performance delle squadre di serie A. Ipotizzarne un comportamento futuro. Vedere se i giocatori contribuiscono al successo della squadra proporzionalmente al loto valore. Verificare il peso del cattivo arbitraggio su una partita, o rilevare la presenza di bias quando un certo arbitro valuta certe squadre.

A pensarci bene, forse ho capito perché.

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